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Empirical study on cultural industry and its structure in China based on time series model

Author(s): Liu Bingfeng, Yan Ningning

We according to the proportion of data from 1952 to 2008 of the cultural industry output value accounted for the GDP time series, ARIMA model is established through the concrete data by using comprehensive analysis. Through model analysis, the conclusion is: since 1952, the cultural industry output value of the proportion of fluctuations in GDP is larger. In a period around 1978, culture industry proportion reached trough; but after 1984 the situation improved and the proportion is increasing year by year, the implementation and the policy after the reform and opening up of China's cultural industry rapid economic development coincide; and in recent years the proportion of the cultural industry in the national total production value in the stable. And according to the change trend of cultural industry production value proportion and proportion on the cultural industry output value analysis, understand the industry structure to our country's culture industry should be optimized, to vigorously develop the cultural industry at the same time, should pay attention to the adjustment of industrial structure, promote cultural industry better and faster development.

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