Abstract

Research on real estate and its application of refraining the speculation

Author(s): Yanbing Liang*, Yongsheng Ma

Taking Hebei Province as the concrete analysis object, this essay aims to discuss the generally rising house prices in each city. It makes a detailed analysis of the various factors that affect house prices, and draws final conclusions and relevant suggestions. Problem 1: Math models of city house price. Through the analysis of the affecting factors such as urban population, household consumption level, land cost in each region and the number of real estate enterprises, the essay makes a comprehensive discussion, and establishes a multiple linear regression equation model. The expression is: y = 2398915.227 – 1494.917*x1+0.01*x2-625.169*x3 The essay makes a detailed analysis of the formation of house price, evolution mechanism and speculation of real estate through the above linear regression equation. Problem 2: Model of house price evaluation elements. By analyzing the factors from data obtained from Statistical Bureau of Hebei province, the essay finally gets the variable function of each indicator: y1=-0.185*x1-0.029*x2+0.24*x3+0.3.9*x4+0.245*x5+0.274*x6+0.004*x7 y2=0.482*x1+0.0410*x2-0.005*x3-0.153*x4-0.007*x5-1.00*x6+0.370*x7 And it reaches the final comprehensive evaluation model of principle elements: Z = (4.339*y1+1.508*y2)/21.539 Thus, we get the ranking of each factor on house price. Problem 3: The essay uses grey forecasting method to predict the house price in the next few years on the basis of problem 2 and combines the statistic regression math constructed in problem 1, and makes further analysis over each element, thus obtaining the following predictions: Predictions of house price in the year 2010-2013 2010 2011 2012 2013 11957 14139 16720 19772 Finally, the essay gives the policy suggestions over refraining the speculation of real estate on the basis of the above results: (1) The government shall issue related laws and regulations to encourage residents to buy property in the countryside and villages; (2) The supervision over land development shall be strengthened; (3) The increase of population should be controlled; (4) The constraint of laws and policies shall be strengthened.