The prediction research of “group of death” in FIFA world cup based on offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency

Author(s): Hui Chang

The “group of death” in World Cup has been the focus of attention of the participating teams. In this study, it takes the recent technical statistic results of each football team in the game as the data basis, conducts a comprehensive analysis on the win and lose sessions, goals and fumbles and the relevant data in the statistics data by the established model, and obtains the relationship expression of the team’s offensive efficiencyM and defensive efficiency N . When the two teams meet, we can use the two teams’ offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency to calculate the respective winning probabilities i W of both teams through themodel.Apply the model in the round robin group stage of theWorld Cup, get the relative winning probability, get the variance D of relative winning probability of all the teams and then explain the competition intensity degree of the group game. Through the data analysis and forecasting on the intensity degree of the group stage in 2014 BrazilWorld Cup, this paper concludes that the intensity degree of the B, D and G groups is the maximum.

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