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Assessment and management strategy of the supply vulnerability in Chinese regional coal market

Author(s): Wang Wen-Sheng, Liu Ya-Qiong, Yin Feng

In this paper we discussed the supply vulnerability of coal market and presented a quantitative assessment to 30 Chinese regiones through factor analysis. We select the ratio of coal production to coal consumption, the ratio of coal storage to coal consumption, degree of dependence on external coal trade, coal consumption intensity and the proportion of coal in primary energy consumption structure as evaluation indexes. The result shows that the 20 regions’ coal supply is fragile and it is urgent to improve the situation. According to coal supply sensitive degree and supply vulnerability coping ability, we divided the 30 regiones into four categories and proposed classified management strategy such as extending the industrial chain, enlargening the coal emergency reserve, optimizing the industrial structure, changing the growing mode and so on.

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