Abstract

A study of risk evaluation and early warning model based on grey system theory

Author(s): Yongchun Miao, Jiayu Huo

By starting from the theory of system safety science, and applying the gray theory prediction method, this paper aims at the major hazards of coal spontaneous combustion, and divides the impact indicators system into three categories, namely, static indicator, dynamic indicator, and intensive monitoring indicator. The static class indicator determines the hazard class by using risk evaluation, and obtains the inherent hazard class of hazard source. The dynamic class indicator serves as a real-time monitoring item. After the monitoring result is analyzed by the gray theory prediction, both the monitoring result and inherent hazard class shall be jointly integrated into the initial hazard class. After the initial hazard class is amended by intensive monitoring indicator, it is possible to obtain the ultimate hazard class corresponding to the major hazards of coal spontaneous combustion. In the early warning of Coal Mine Gas and the major hazard of fire disaster, it is proposed to adopt the combination of dynamic and static early warning method. In essence, the static early warning serves as a kind of “early warning” for the current state of early warning indicator, while the dynamic early warning serves as the predictive judgment about the current state of early warning indicator, based on the analysis of the development trends.