Model of Bayes discriminant analysis and its application in evaluating debris flow hazard degree

Author(s): Li Yue-Hua, Zhang Shao-He

Based on the methods of evaluating debris flow hazard degree being multiple but difficult to come into being a system, a new Bayes discriminant analysis method to assess debris flow hazard degree is presented. After taking the mainly factors of debris flow hazard degree into consideration,the 10 factors related with topography,geology,hydrology and meteorology and human activities are chosen as the evaluating indexes;and the influence of dimension of the indexes are eliminated by the method of range. Then,the weights of indexes are determined by preference ratio method. Finally,the data of 20 debris flow projects are taken as the training and testing samples so as to build the model of Bayes discriminant analysis for evaluating the debris flow hazard degree;and the resubstitution method is used to estimate the ratio of mistake-distinguish. Typical debris flow hazard degree in Yunnan-Guizhou plateau and Miyun county is evaluated by this trained model,and it is showed that the results are consistent with the actual situation and the evaluation results of other methods.

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