Abstract

Correlation analysis on China's carbon emissions and its specific industrial structure- Based on grey correlation analysis model

Author(s): Xun Wang

Industrial structure adjustment and the low carbon economy development are connected with each other and there exists intrinsic unification between the two of them. To discuss the issue of carbon emissions intensity based on the specific industrial structure is conducive to correctly judge and grasp the industry factors that result in the change of carbon emissions and effectively formulate industrial development policies for controlling carbon emissions. This paper based on the analysis of China's carbon emissions change trend, chose 28 major provincial data of carbon emissions, proportion of three industries, per unit of GDP carbon emissions during 2004-2011, studied correlation between China's carbon intensity, primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry, using gray correlation analysis method. And the following conclusions are obtained: The second industry is the main factor influencing the regional carbon intensity. There are 16 areas around the country that have the biggest correlation between secondary industry and carbon intensity. However, the second industry is not the only factor that affects regional carbon emissions increase. Tertiary industry does not have obvious effect on the reduce of regional carbon emissions. There are 11 areas around the country whose influence of the third industry on carbon emissions exceeds that of second industry, which needs to be brought to the forefront. The first industry has the minimal impact on carbon emissions intensity. There are only 4 areas around the country whose first industry's impact on carbon emissions intensity is not the minimal. In summary, there is no single, precise evolution law between industrial structure change and carbon emissions in different provinces domains in China. On this basis, this paper discusses carbon reduction strategy of industrial structure adjustment of our country in the future, so as to effectively control influence of the industrial development on carbon intensity.


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