With the rapid development of the economy in China, the real estate industry, as a pillar of the economy booming is developing constantly. Since the economic crisis swept the world, China's real estate industry has been affected a lot to a certain extent. The Chinese government introduced the related policy in order to maintain the stability of the real estate market gradually; this caused unstable situation of the change of the market. At the same time, because the current phenomenon of the real estate market’s bubble in our country, the development of real estate enterprises also exists a certain risk. This paper selects the real estate enterprise investment project of Weifang Shandong as the research object, combined with the mathematical theory and the public, we establish Bayesian mode about of the risk of enterprise development in Weifang. Through the analysis of the expected value of the project plan, and follow the principle of maximum benefit, we finally choose the most reasonable solution. But it should be pointed out that, the analysis of real estate investment risk decision in Bayesian method has a certain limitation, we hope that the research play a role in promoting on the development of related fields.